
‘To risk stratify or not risk stratify, that is the question’ (At least, it should be)
Risk stratification tools are ubiquitous in healthcare. The concept is simple and seductive. By predicting the risk of future adverse events, we should be able to target efforts to avoid/mitigate them. Doing so would save both money and misery. But, as Niels Bohr said wryly, “Prediction isn’…
Modelling the impact of covid on waiting lists for planned care
Working with the national collaboration to coordinate covid-related analysis, and the NHSE/I Midlands region, the Strategy Unit has produced a ‘systems dynamics’ model of waiting lists for planned care. The model is freely available for non-commercial use across the NHS. Here, Steven Wyatt and Mike…
How can Integrated Care Systems collect and use more ‘person-centred intelligence’?
Working with our partners Ipsos MORI, we have produced detailed guidance and an offer of services to address this question. This webpage contains information about the work, and all the products from it. Please get in touch if you would like to improve your use of person-…

How will we know if Integrated Care Systems reduce demand for urgent care?
The implications of a blended payment system are far reaching: Decisions about planned activity levels will determine the total funding envelope for urgent care within a system and will influence the behaviour of healthcare providers and the services they deliver to patients.
Horizontal or Vertical: Which way to integrate?
In 2011, Primary Care Trusts faced a difficult choice. The Transforming Community Services policy required a complete break of commissioner and provider functions. But what should PCTs do with the community health services they delivered; vertically integrate with an acute trust, horizontally…
Integrated Impact Assessment for Major Hospital Reconfiguration
The Strategy Unit worked as a strategic partner of the NHS Future Fit Programme in Shropshire and Telford and Wrekin from its initiation and until it was able to move to public consultation. A key output was a comprehensive Integrated Impact Assessment of acute hospital options that enabled…

Modelling Patients Flows under Potential Configurations of Emergency Centres with Specialised Services
Onsite, 24/7 access to complex vascular surgery, hyper acute stroke services and primary percutaneous coronary interventions are expected to be a pre-requisite for a hospital to be designated as an emergency centre with specialised services. This paper sets out the patient access and patient…