Scenario planning – an antidote to the false certainties of forecasts and grand plans
The resurgence of uncertainty
Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis
Scenario planning is recognised as an effective aid to strategic planning in complex, uncertain conditions. It is an approach that the Strategy Unit is increasingly building into its work with health and care systems and third sector organisations.
Dudley MCP Scenario Analysis
Dudley is one of fourteen vanguard sites nationally developing the Multispecialty Community Provider (MCP) care model.
Clinical Workforce Scenarios for the Black Country
The future is highly uncertain.
"I am constantly reminded of the value of their team, and the scenario planning work has equally impressed me" - Dudley MCP Analysis
"The Strategy Unit prepared and delivered the Dudley System
Exploring the Edge of Tomorrow, Today
Exploring the critical building blocks for a resilient social care system in 2035 with the West Midlands Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (WM-ADASS).
Let’s face the music and (not) dance
David Frith leads our strategy consultancy work with NHS and third sector organisations.
Lessons, Evaluation and Learning from the Dudley MCP
Learning from Dudley MCP
Modelling the impact of covid on waiting lists for planned care
Working with the national collaboration to coordinate covid-related analysis, and the NHSE/I Midlands region, the Strategy Unit has produced a ‘systems dynamics’ model of waiting lists for planned care. The model is freely available for non-commercial use across the NHS. Here, Steven Wyatt and Mike Woodall explain what we did and how we did it.
"...an excellent way of encouraging health and care professionals to think about and challenge each other on the future"
"The Strategy Unit scenario planning was an excellent way of encouraging health and care professionals to think about and challenge e
Continuity of Care - Exploration Day
Learn about the role of continuity in efficient and sustainable primary care and the impact on demand,
Bringing patient flow modelling into general practice
With general practice appointments hitting the highest numbers on record (34.8 million in England alone in November 2021), careful organisation and planning for patient appointments is increasingly important.
Decision Making Blog #3: The black hole of the status quo
Learning is one of the joys of teaching. And I’ve learnt a lot while helping people develop their decision making skills.
"...interesting and just invaluable for our afternoon thinking"
"The way the scenario workshop was structured really stood out for me.
Insight 2021: Welcome to INSIGHT 2021
Peter Spilsbury (Director, Strategy Unit) welcomes you to INSIGHT 2021 and i
Douglas McKelvie
Modelling and Simulation Symmetric Scenarios
Artificial Intelligence and the NHS
This is a note of an interview with Matt Fenech of Future Advocacy
Mike Woodall
Mike has over 25 years’ experience in analytical roles across the health and care sector.
Strategy Unit demand model wins prestigious Florence Nightingale Award
Our open-source demand model, developed in collaboration with the New Hospital Programme, has been named the 2025 winner of the Florence Nightingale Award for Excellence in Health and Care Analytics.
COVID-19: breaking the cycle of deprivation and ill health
Promoting whole-system action on the wider determinants of healthy life expectancy in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic